InteliQuest Monsoon Tracker XXII (25-07-2024)

General Forecast 

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated a dynamic weather pattern across India for today and the coming days. Exceptionally heavy rainfall, exceeding 40 cm, is expected in the Gujarat region today. This intense rainfall is likely to continue in isolated areas of Gujarat, Konkan & Goa, and Madhya Maharashtra over the next two days. Following this period, these regions will experience heavy to very heavy rainfall, highlighting the persistent and robust nature of the monsoon in these areas.

For the broader monsoon activity, the IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall for most parts of the country, particularly in Central India and the southern peninsular regions. This forecast is promising for agricultural activities that rely heavily on monsoon rains. However, some parts of Northeast India  and northern areas of Northwest India may receive normal to below-normal rainfall, indicating potential variability in precipitation patterns across different regions.

Regions in Central India and the South Peninsula are expected to experience above-normal rainfall, beneficial for agriculture. In contrast, Northwest India will likely see normal rainfall, and Northeast India might receive below-normal precipitation. These diverse rainfall patterns highlight the importance of continuous monitoring and localised weather advisories to mitigate adverse effects and optimize agricultural planning and water resource management.

Severe Alerts

  • Red Alerts have been issued for parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra, due to the extremely heavy rainfall expected. These alerts are particularly significant for the Saurashtra and Kutch regions in Gujarat, as well as several districts in Maharashtra, including Mumbai, Raigad, and Ratnagiri. The heavy rainfall in these areas could lead to severe flooding, landslides, and disruption of daily life.
  • Orange Alerts have been issued for four states: Goa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha. These alerts warn of very heavy rainfall, which can cause substantial impact and necessitate preparedness measures. The regions under orange alerts are advised to be on high alert for potential flooding and waterlogging.
  • Yellow Alerts are in place for Mumbai and other areas, indicating heavy rainfall that could affect normal activities but with a lower severity level than red and orange alerts. These alerts are crucial for ensuring that local authorities and residents remain vigilant and prepared for any weather-related emergencies.

Travel and Supply Chain Impact

Maharashtra and Mumbai 

  • Mumbai, Thane, Central Maharashtra, Pune, and Lonavala regions are severely affected.
  • One automatic gate (Gate no.6) of Radhanagari dam has been opened, discharging 2928 cusecs into Bhogavati river, a tributary of the Panchaganga River.This additional discharge from the Radhanagari Dam will further increase the flood level of the Panchaganga River and worsen the flood scenario in the district. Villagers have been directed to stay alert and shift to a safe place immediately.
  • Several residential apartments in Pune’s Pimpri-Chinchwad have been flooded
  • Local train services in Mumbai are experiencing significant delays and cancellations. Central and Western Railway lines are notably disrupted, affecting commuter movement. The Harbour line services are also facing interruptions due to waterlogging on tracks.
  • Key roads, including the Western Express Highway, Eastern Express Highway, and the Sion-Panvel Highway, are severely waterlogged, causing massive traffic jams and delays. 
  • Major junctions and low-lying areas like Andheri Subway and Milan Subway are particularly affected by water accumulation.
  • Flight operations at Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport are impacted, with several flights delayed. Airlines such as IndiGo, Air India, and Vistara have reported delays due to poor visibility and heavy rainfall.
  • Holidays are  declared for all schools and colleges in Palghar district.
  • Air India has issued advisories for its travelers in light of the severe rains.
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Gujarat 

  • Recent heavy rains have resulted in severe flooding across Gujarat, particularly in Vadodara.
  • Vadodara is the most significantly impacted city, experiencing extensive flooding, especially in low-lying regions.
  •  Flood alerts have also been issued for Narmada and Bharuch districts due to rising water levels in rivers and dams.
  • Flooding has disrupted several major highways and local roads: National Highway 48: Key sections connecting Vadodara to Surat and Ahmedabad are waterlogged, affecting traffic flow.
  • Many routes within Vadodara, including roads in the Sayajiganj, Alkapuri, and Manjalpur areas, are submerged, making vehicular movement challenging
  • Rail traffic has been severely affected, with numerous cancellations and delays.At least 10 trains have been canceled, and several others have been delayed or rerouted. Notable cancellations include the Mumbai-Vadodara Shatabdi Express and the Ahmedabad-Mumbai Central Duronto Express. Vadodara Junction and surrounding stations face significant waterlogging, hindering operations and causing inconvenience to passengers.
  • NDRF teams and local authorities are actively evacuating residents from affected areas. Temporary shelters have been established for displaced individuals.
  • The state government is providing financial assistance to flood victims, and humanitarian aid, including food and water supplies, is being distributed.
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Karnataka

  • The districts of Uttar Kannada, Dakshina Kannada, Udupi, Chikkamagaluru, Kodagu, and Belagavi are experiencing heavy rainfall and strong winds. Bengaluru, Bengaluru Rural, Davanagere, Chitradurga, Kalaburagi, Tumakuru, and Dharwad are also facing moderate rainfall.
  • Several roads, including national and state highways, are waterlogged. Roads in districts like Dakshina Kannada and Udupi are particularly affected.
  • Bengaluru is experiencing traffic congestion and delays due to waterlogged streets.
  • Services in districts like Davangere and Chitradurga are running with delays due to waterlogged tracks.
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