Moscow under siege

Risk Category: Geopolitical/ Economic Risk

Moscow witnessed one of its worst terrorist attacks in 20 years on March 22, when four masked men gunned down a crowd gathered for a concert at Crocus City Hall and set the place aflame killing about 139 people. The responsibility for the heinous crime was claimed by the Islamic State of Iran and Syria (ISIS) and the claim was cemented with the release of a video footage of the attack.
The Russian authorities have made several arrests, bringing four men before the court suspecting their direct involvement in the conduct of the said attack. The men belong to Tajikistan and are charged with committing an ‘act of terrorism’ punishable with life imprisonment. The suspects were brought to the court in a disheveled condition, after being evidently beaten up in custody.

A warning unheeded

Several questions arise regarding the geo-political structure which might have culminated into this attack. The US embassy in Moscow, had however issued a very specific warning to American nationals regarding an ‘extremist’ attack in Moscow, asking them to steer clear of large gatherings including concerts. Washington also claims to have shared relevant intelligence with Russian authorities under their ‘duty to warn’ policy when the knowledge of an impending act threatens civilian safety. The diplomatic channels allow information sharing even between nations which are hostile, and the Kremlin had received prior warning in anticipation of a violent act of Islamic extremism. Ignoring Washington’s call for precaution cost the country and its people severely.

The warning remained disregarded for several palpable reasons. The first and most evident is the long-term animosity between the two countries, which has only intensified after Moscow’s military operation in Kyiv. Putin viewed the warnings as Western propaganda to deliberately intimidate and threaten Russian society in support of its Ukrainian alliance. While the Kremlin scrambled to pin the blame on Kyiv for the terror attack, the overwhelming evidence led to the dawn of acceptance that the attacks were indeed conducted by ‘radical Islamists’. Putin, however, left a window of doubt open by saying that those providing directions remain unknown, trying to fit Kyiv into the larger architecture of the act.

ISIS and its interest in Moscow

ISIS is known to claim responsibility for its violent and terrorist conduct in order to instil fear in the hearts of the victims, kin and observers. By declaring itself as the architect of the attack in Moscow, it has disillusioned many in the Kremlin, including Vladamir Putin himself. The Russian stalwarts long believed that they were safe from Islamic extremism due to their openly warm
relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Hamas in Palestine.

The group responsible for the attack is Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), which is a Central Asian affiliate of ISIS. While these are all names of Islamic extremist groups, they are neither cordial nor amiable. The IS-K has been known to strategize and launch attacks against the Taliban, as well as the American troops, while they were in Afghanistan. During the chaotic withdrawal of Washington from Kabul in August 2021, the IS-K was responsible for the suicide bombing at the Kabul International Airport, which killed 13 American troop members and about 130 civilians. IS-K’s animosity is not limited to Kabul and Washington, it extends to their allies in Europe and Central Asia as well. Russia happened to be one of the first nations to establish diplomatic ties
with the Taliban-led Afghan government.

IS-K’s focus on Moscow is not limited to its alliance with its adversary. According to some experts in Washington who have been closely monitoring ISIS and its affiliates, IS-K had been long drawn to planning disruptions in Russia. The group had made its disaffection with Moscow clear by attacking the Moscow embassy in Kabul in September 2022. Experts had declared the precarious preparedness of the extremist group to conduct operations outside of Afghanistan and as far as Europe which became evident by the attack in Moscow. They had also warned about IS-K’s fixation on Moscow for the past two years. The disaffection emanates from the extremist group’s belief that Russia has Muslim blood on its hands due to its involvement in Syria, Yemen and Chechnya.