Risk: Moderate
What Happened?
- US officials are investigating an attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump during a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania.
- Former President Donald Trump was addressing the audience from a raised podium when he was shot from the roof of a building outside the Secret Service-secured area. According to reports, the bullet grazed Trump’s ear.
- The US Secret Service covered President Trump while security agents returned fire and neutralised the attacker. One attendee was killed, and two others were injured.
- Trump was treated in the hospital for a gunshot wound to his ear before being released.
- Before the incident, unverified reports suggest attendees at the gathering observed a man armed with a rifle ascending up a structure and attempted to warn authorities of the suspicious behaviour. However, it is alleged that the security at the venue dismissed the concerns of the attendees.
- Authorities have identified the gunman, but investigations are ongoing to identify motive, associations, and network links. There is no evidence of a larger threat to public safety.
- Federal and state officials have initiated a security operation to investigate and assess potential threats. Local disruption is expected, as well as security actions in other parts of the USA.
The Investigation:
- The probe has come under severe scrutiny. Some sources, including activists and conspiracy theorists, have claimed further details about the suspect. In contrast, others believe the identity revealed by officials is fake and have attempted to identify the person themselves.
- Claims include linking the suspect to both left and right-wing threat actors, as well as suspicions of foreign influence, primarily from China.
Threat Assessment
- The shooting of the former President represents a moderate threat to the public and other candidates contesting for the presidential elections.
- Concerns about additional political violence, including copycat actions, in addition to inciting information disorder, including conspiracy theories, and demonstrations both in support of and against Presidential candidates and their parties, with the potential for unrest, will lead to an increase in security along the presidential campaign routes.
- The assassination attempt on Mr Trump, who continues to enjoy a large and loyal following among his admirers, has the potential to instigate and motivate retaliatory attacks from hardline and extreme groups that support Mr Trump and similar views in the coming days and weeks.
- Extreme right-wing groups located in the United States are almost certain to use the shooting to rally support both within existing membership and as an opportunity to enhance recruitment efforts targeting discontented and angry individuals in the aftermath of the occurrence.
- There is a considerable risk of retaliation assaults against events, groups, and venues linked with left-leaning politics, either by organised extreme right-wing groups or radical individuals. This might include targeting rallies, political events, offices and organisations, and individuals seen to be ‘opposing’ Trump and his politics.
- Organisations will likely have a greater operational impact in and near areas linked with political events and infrastructure, such as government buildings, campaign rallies, and political party headquarters and locations. This could involve increased security measures like road and building closures, physical searches of personnel and material in or near protected places, and interruption to neighbouring transportation hubs.
- Mr Trump and his supporters may use inflammatory language, such as calling for supporters to ‘fight’ or references to violence or war, in response to a potential assassination attempt. This could increase the risk of extremist attacks by individuals or groups.
