Risk Category: High Risk
What Happened?
- Student protests against civil service hiring rules turned into severe unrest in Bangladesh, resulting in at least 151 deaths and widespread destruction in Dhaka.
- The protests began after the High Court reinstated a quota system for government jobs, reversing a 2018 decision by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government to remove it.
- The quota system reserved 30% of jobs for families of freedom fighters from the 1971 independence war, sparking outrage among students demanding merit-based hiring.
- Early July 2024: Protests erupted after the Prime Minister refused to abolish the quotas, citing ongoing judicial review, and further inflamed tensions by comparing protesters to the Razakar Force.
- July 16, 2024: Protests turned violent with clashes between police and students, leading to six deaths. Police used rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse demonstrators.
- July 21, 2024: The Supreme Court scaled back the quota system, ordering 93% of jobs to be allocated through merit, 5% for veterans’ relatives, and 2% for ethnic minorities, transgender, and disabled people, without entirely scrapping the reservation policy.
- Ongoing: The government extended the curfew indefinitely, closed all schools and universities, and deployed paramilitary forces in major cities to maintain order.
- Prime Minister Hasina vowed to punish those responsible for the violence but remained firm on not interfering with the judicial process concerning the quota system.
Plan of Action and State Response:
- The government has imposed a five-day internet blackout to curb communication among protesters and control the situation.
- A public holiday was declared on Monday, following a court decision to reduce the controversial job quota system.
- An indefinite curfew with a shoot-on-sight order has been enacted, with military personnel deployed in Dhaka and other areas to enforce it.
- SMS services have also been suspended, and the curfew has been extended with limited breaks allowing for citizens to gather essential supplies.
Threat Assessment:
- The severe unrest in Bangladesh, driven by protests against the reinstated job quota system, has resulted in at least 151 deaths and widespread destruction. This instability threatens the country’s governance and could escalate tensions if unresolved, leading to a prolonged period of civil unrest.
- Economic activities are significantly disrupted due to the indefinite curfew, closure of educational institutions, and suspension of internet and SMS services. These restrictions are impeding business operations, reducing productivity, and leading to potential financial losses from restricted movement and communication.
- Public safety risks are elevated with the deployment of military personnel and the enforcement of a shoot-on-sight curfew. The risk of further violence and clashes between protesters and security forces poses dangers to both local residents and foreign nationals, increasing the overall security threat.
- Humanitarian concerns are growing as violence and curfews limit access to essential supplies and services. The extended curfew and internet blackout hinder emergency response efforts and complicate access to medical care and humanitarian aid, exacerbating the crisis.
- The investment climate is negatively impacted by the current instability and government responses. Foreign investors may be deterred by the civil unrest and potential for future disruptions, which could affect investor confidence and decision-making regarding operations in Bangladesh.
- Regional effects include potential increases in migration flows and strain on neighboring countries’ resources. The unrest may also influence regional geopolitical dynamics, particularly if neighboring nations need to address the fallout from Bangladesh’s instability.
- Transportation and logistics are heavily affected, with severe disruptions in passenger and freight rail services. Railways and highways are intermittently blocked, impacting major routes including those leading to Dhaka. Public bus services and the Dhaka Metro Rail remain suspended, and the international rail link with India has been canceled.
- Flight operations at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport face disruptions due to security concerns and reduced demand. Airlines have suspended or altered schedules, leading to potential delays and cancellations of flights.
- Business operations are further hampered by official holidays and the internet blackout, causing significant challenges in communication and operations. Diplomatic facilities, including the US Embassy, have also been closed or limited in their services due to the unrest.
- Ground shipping faces disruptions from prolonged or recurring blockades, particularly at land ports. While port operations are less affected, sustained curfews and restrictions could lead to panic buying and stockpiling, creating artificial shortages of essential items like food and fuel.
